Evaluation

Research

Calibration and closing-line value will compare the stats-only model against the context model.

Model A

Dixon-Coles baseline

Brier 0.214Log loss 0.612CLV pending

Model B

Context model

Brier pendingLog loss pendingCLV pending

Calibration scaffold

40-50%
46%
50-60%
55%
60-70%
65%